Go
Saints!

Friday
March 29th, 2024
L&T Opinions Page

earl watt mugL&T Publisher Earl Watt

 

You heard it here first, but I wanted to make it public that the Democrats will have a brokered convention in July in Milwaukee.

Each week in this location I will show the path to the brokered convention and why it’s going to happen with updates following the Democratic nomination process that will lead to the chaotic convention.

First, it’s important to know what a brokered convention is.

To be the nominee from either the Republican or Democratic parties, primaries award the candidates with delegates to the national convention, called pledged delegates.

For Democrats, there are 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 superdelegates.

To win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot, a candidate must have a majority of the pledged delegates, or 1,990.

If no candidate reaches 1,990, the superdelegates are then allowed to vote on the second ballot, and the winner must receive a total of 2,376 combined delegates to win.

National polling has Joe Biden as the leader with 27 percent of the Democrats being polled. If that number reflected to the number of delegates won, he would receive 1,074 delegates, way short of the 1,990 required.

But in Iowa, Biden came in fourth and received six of the 40 delegates available.

Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg ended in a virtual tie at 25 percent each, and Sanders received 12 delegates while Buttigieg got 13. Elizabeth Warren came in third and claimed eight delegates.

New Hampshire is the next Democratic state primary, and Sanders currently is leading with 25 percent in the polls.

Again, if Sanders continues at a 25 percent pace, he will receive around 995 delegates, way short of the needed 1,990 to earn the nomination on the first ballot.

It appears that Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg plan on staying in the race to the convention, and while others are still in the race now, it is likely they will start to withdraw as the math becomes clear they cannot win the nomination.

But they may choose to remain if it is clear no one will reach the convention with the needed 1,990 delegates.

That will throw the convention into a second ballot, and the superdelegates can influence the outcome.

But if they do not vote en masse for Biden, it may not be enough to put any specific candidate over the top.

And that’s when all delegates are released from their original candidate, and they must start working together until the can push one candidate over the 2,376 threshold to become the nominee.

With the confusion in Iowa to start the race, and the divisive race that will continue to Milwaukee, it is likely whoever does not earn the nomination at the convention will feel cheated by the process, especially if Sanders does not win.

Will those supporters of the losing candidates at the convention have the enthusiasm to support a rival?

We will see.

This is going to be interesting.

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