GUEST COLUMN, Dick Morris
My good friend and Newsmax colleague Tom Basile, who normally writes insightful political stories, not obituaries, is off base in contending in a Washington Times Op-Ed that Trump’s “electoral map is shrinking” in the wake of the Nov. 8 Congressional election results.
He claims, due to Republican defeats in key states, that “Georgia could be off the table for Mr. Trump” and that Arizona “may no longer be in play” for the former president. He adds that Pennsylvania is “likely a much heavier lift” for Trump.
Tom Basile is basing his doomsday worries on Republican Senate defeats in two of the three states.
But Senate races are particularly susceptible to flawed and underfunded campaigns. Walker was outspent 2:1 in the Georgia Senate race while Republican Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters was outspent by upwards of 4:1. And, in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman spent tens of millions more than his GOP opponent Dr. Oz.
Did this gross disparity in funding (in part the result of Mitch McConnell’s near-sighted refusal to fund pro-Trump candidates) have contributed more to their defeats than any supposed Trump unpopularity?
To determine how much underfunding contributed to these Senate defeats (as opposed to a Trump drag on the ticket), let look at the House race results. After all, the 435 House contests, taken together, are the only real national results to study in the 2022 contests since every district in every state, not just certain ones, was in play.
Arizona? Republican federal House candidates got 1,323,000 votes while their Democratic opponents won only 1,003,000. In Georgia, Republican House candidates defeated their Democratic adversaries by 2,043,942 — 1,873,650. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans got 2,692,000 votes to Democrats’ 2.418,000.
Trump was obviously a key factor in all these races, but Democratic out-spending of their rivals was much less pronounced in House than in Senate races.
Nationally, how toxic could the Trump brand be when Republicans won 53 million votes for their House candidates while Democrats only managed 48 million?
Trump’s Republican Party got 5 points more votes the House races of 2022 having lost the popular vote in 2020 by 7 points. The 12-point turnaround is the greatest two-year performance since the 1990s.
Despite the evidence of Trump triumphs in House races, Democrats and fellow-traveling RINO Republicans are quick to worry that the former president will drag us down in 2024. They are quick to advise us that Trump’s time has passed and that we should turn the page to run Ron DeSantis instead.
But this data reveals the flaw in letting the other party decide who we should run.
Trump is our best shot at winning, bar none.