GUEST COLUMN, Dick Morris
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is at its highest level since March 11, 2017, just a few weeks after he took office, according to Real Clear Politics.
The site reported that his average approval rating across a variety of polls is now 43.8 percent, about the same as President Barack Obama’s 42.4 percent rating at this point in his tenure.
Rasmussen, the most accurate of the polls (since it samples likely as opposed to just registered voters) has Trump’s approval rating at 51 percent.
In December 2017, Trump’s approval rating was at just 37 percent in the Real Clear Politics average, meaning he has seen a roughly seven-point jump since then.
Similarly, the generic ballot for Congress (Would you say you are more likely to vote for the Democrat or the Republican candidate in your district?) shows a shrinking Democrat advantage.
On March 11, Democrats enjoyed a 9.5-percentage point advantage.
That advantage has shrunk to 5.5 points today.
While the polling average shows a Democrat lead, it is likely to be a fleeting once, since the Republicans always do better in the allocation of seats than their vote share would indicate.
In 2016, for example, while Republicans won only 49.9 percent of the vote for Congress, they won 55.2 percent of the seats.
Democrats won 47.3 percent of the votes but got only 44.8 percent of the seats.
This gap exists largely because many Democrat districts support their party by top-heavy margins (particularly in minority areas), so those votes have less of an impact on the national outcome than if were they cast in swing districts.
These trends, combined with the large number of Senate seats the Democrats have at risk this election (25 Democrat seats vs. nine Republican ones), mean the GOP is quite possibly going to score gains in both the House and the Senate should Trump’s ratings continue to improve.