ELLY GRIMM
• Leader & Times
Shoppers are noticing higher prices at their local stores, and the effects could last for a while, according to experts.
“As everyone knows, prices are going up, and recent tariffs are to blame. From coffee to furniture, tariffs are forcing companies to raise their prices to offset the costs of tariffs, and shoppers are the ones paying the price,” OEC Group Sales Supervisor Joseph Firrincieli said. “Many companies rushed in inventory to beat the tariffs, but those supplies are now running out. Everything in regard to this trade war is changing on a pretty frequent basis, but the main trend I'm seeing is a lot of ups and downs when it comes to import volume – for example, if there's a suspension on a tariff that's set to expire on a certain date, we will then see a surge of imports because shippers will want to bring in as much as they can before the suspension is lifted and then things go back to whatever it's supposed to be. Then, once that happens, there's typically a lull in that activity and there won't be as many imports because shippers don't want to pay those tariffs. It's very dependent on the commodity and country of origin, but for the most part, imports seem to be going up when shippers are trying to take advantage of the lack of tariffs prior to any increase(s) that go through. I can't say there's any one thing in particular since there are so many, but with the initial 145-day suspension that was put in place, we saw a lot of imports there and shippers bringing in as much as possible before that was lifted. That's the main trend we're currently seeing, but things are changing so much that it's difficult to fully keep up with everything.”
At this point, Firrincieli said, it is still rather early to say there will be any major effects seen by everyday shoppers.
“I would say the increases are going to be across the board, but I can't say the tariffs have had a super dramatic effect on the everyday consumer yet. I think it's still too early, and I think we'll start to feel those effects within probably the next year,” Firrincieli said. “One example is holiday goods – Christmas items and everything along those lines should have been shipped in the summer before Labor Day so everything would be ready for the shelves after the Labor Day holiday. If you look at that three-month suspension of that 145 percent tariff, shippers shipped as much as they could during that window in order to avoid paying that tariff. I don't know if there'll be a super significant increase over last year when it comes to those items because I think a lot of shippers were able to get that stuff in during that suspension. I can't honestly say I've seen any majorly dramatic price increases that's a direct result of this trade war as of yet. However, if this continues on for, say, another year, and there's new tariffs on top of new tariffs, THAT'S when the crunch would be most felt by the everyday consumer. But like I said earlier, things are changing so frequently that it's hard to give any fixed numbers or figures.”
The situation is roughly the same with foodstuffs, Firrincieli said.
“A lot of foodstuffs come from Mexico and Canada and other countries in South America, and there's other foodstuffs we import into the U.S. Unfortunately, Trump isn't going just after China, he's going after pretty much every country, so there will definitely be some price increases,” Firrincieli said. “I can't say I've seen anything major yet in terms of those increases, but there will undoubtedly be an increase in prices with certain items. At this time, however, I feel like it's too early for there to be any major impacts to the average consumer.”
There is much still to keep track of as time goes on, Firrincieli said.
“The way shipping works is, you have to think four to six months out with a lot of things – Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's and even Valentine's Day items are already here, so what comes next? Spring and summer items, and then comes the question of what is particularly used and needed during those times,” Firrincieli said. “That includes patio furniture, fire pits, barbecue equipment, and pretty much everything else you need for your backyard like landscaping needs and flowers and all of that stuff. Those are all items we're going to see starting to ship around now. Then, shippers have to think about what country those items will be coming out of and what tariff(s) are in place currently and those logistical details. We're trying to get ahead of the curve and provide our clients with all the information we have so they can make their necessary decisions. All of our advice is based on what we know at that moment.”
Firrincieli added there is new information to be passed on to his clients every day.
“As soon as the news came out of a suspension on the tariffs, we were busy. We were either in the process of advising our clients or we had clients calling and asking us if we'd heard about what was going on with that,” Firrincieli said. “We have many people who are on that and doing the math, and we've been able to give good news to many of our clients. We've been working really hard to update people with that information but again, things are changing so frequently, and it's not just one country or commodity that's being affected, it's all over the place. For everyday customers, I would advise them to buy as much as they can right now. For example, with foodstuffs, a lot of canned foods have a long shelf life, so if you have the space and resources, get as much of that stuff as you can. The reason I say that is ... again, I haven't really seen any dramatic price increases solely because of this trade war since it's too early, but unfortunately, a lot of companies and entities will use this to their advantage and jack prices up. There's no denying there will be some price increases because of everything that's going on, but I think multiple companies will use this to their advantage and as a reason to jack up prices on everyday goods down the road. If there's anything you really need, see if you can get it now before prices get jacked up.”
Firrincieli said it could be a while before any major stabilization is seen.
“I can’t fully say when any kind of a slowdown could happen, it all seems based solely on how Trump is feeling that day/week. I hate to have to keep saying this to people, but we honestly can't predict what kind of mood he'll be in or what he'll do next,” Firrincieli said. “Currently, we're entering a slack season in terms of imports, and we won't really see imports ramp up again until shortly before the Chinese New Year season in February, and there are multiple other factors to take into consideration. As a word of advice to importers and the everyday consumer, if you're not paying attention to the news now, start doing so, because even with my being in this industry, there's a lot to keep track of, and there are almost day-to-day changes. You have to be tuned in to what's going on so if there's a day when you notice a dramatic increase in the price of something you're buying, you have an idea of why that's happened.”
