L&T Publisher Earl Watt
How will Donald Trump being dressed in a sanitation uniform affect the election? We may never know. It usually takes a week to 10 days to watch the best polls which tend to have daily rolling averages show just how much an event changes the numbers.
However it works out, the move was brilliant whether you like Trump or not. Sometimes when the other team makes a great play, you simply have to give credit where credit is due, and Trump’s McDonald’s appearance along with taking a statement meant to be derogatory and twisting it into a brilliant publicity stunt will go down as two of the best attention getters in political history.
Will they help Trump defeat Kamala Harris in a race for the White House? We may never know, because there is only one poll that matters and that’s what the voters say Tuesday.
Recently, a pollster on CNN pointed out that if Trump wins, it shouldn’t be a surprise. According to him, all the signs are there, form the low numbers supporting the incumbent party to the larger advantage in registrations Republicans have experienced since the 2020 election coupled with an actual decline in Democratic registrations.
According to Real Clear Politics, an organization that takes all the polls and compiles them into an average, Trump is polling at the highest he ever has.
At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 2.5 point lead in the polls. Joe Biden led by 7.5 points nationwide, and Trump is entering the final two days of the campaign with a 0.4 lead over Harris.
That’s a small number, for sure, but Trump outperformed the final polls in both previous elections.
But not so fast, Trump supporters. According to another elections expert, the polls have never underestimated the same party for three straight cycles, and some pundits are claiming it is Harris, not Trump, that is being underestimated in the polls.
We will see in two days, but for right now, Trump is at his political height.
Of course, the national polling is somewhat meaningless. The president isn’t chosen by the national vote but by the Electoral College, which means the candidates have to reach 270 Electoral Votes to become president.
After the states that are not competitive are taken into account, that leaves seven battleground states.
According to RCP, Trump is leading in Georgia (2.5), North Carolina (1.4), Pennsylvania (0.7), Arizona (2.4) and Nevada (0.9). Harris is leading in Michigan (0.5) and Wisconsin (0.2)
If all of those numbers are true, Trump will earn 287 Electoral Votes, and Harris will get 251, making Trump the president.
The weakest state on Trump list is Nevada. It’s the one state Trump had a lead but lost in 2016. If Harris wins Nevada, that would reduce Trump to 281, which is still enough to win.
Harris polling ahead in both Michigan and Wisconsin could be form an outlier poll that skewed the final numbers in her favor, including a CNN poll showing her ahead by 5 points in Michigan. No other poll was close to that.
If Trump takes either of those there is virtually no path to victory for Harris.
Some pollsters have Trump making Virginia and New Mexico competitive.
Time will tell.
Watch the results early in Georgia and Pennsylvania to get an idea. If Trump takes both, it could be an easy night. If Harris wins, Trump is in deep trouble.
For local election night results, watch The High Plains News Today at 7 p.m. at liberalfirst.com. Refresh at 7 p.m.
