Opinion

GUEST COLUMN, Vance Ginn, Kansas Policy Institute

Americans are voting with their feet, and states are either competing for them — or watching them leave.

Data posted by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity at VoteWithYourFeet.net make it painfully clear: Kansas is hemorrhaging residents. Over the last decade, it had a net loss of nearly 100,000 people to other states. That’s not just bad optics — that’s economic decline in motion.

A graph showing states gaining from domestic migration and those losing, across the US. Kansas is -97k from 2012-2022.

But let’s be clear: this isn’t about Kansas alone. It’s a warning for every state that refuses to reform — especially those with bloated budgets, punitive taxes, and heavy-handed regulation. In a mobile, digital, choice-driven economy, people move toward opportunity and away from government overreach.

Kansas is falling behind because Gov. Laura Kelly and too many lawmakers haven’t learned that lesson.

The data don’t lie

Between 2012 and 2022, Kansas lost 97,000 people to net domestic outmigration. That’s one of the worst tallies in the region. Meanwhile:

Texas gained nearly 1.7 million residents

Florida pulled in 1.9 million

Tennessee added over 500,000

Idaho, Utah, Arizona — all winners too

These aren’t just warm states. They’re competitive states. States that have taken the steps to attract talent, capital, and businesses by doing three things: spending less, taxing less, and regulating less. Kansas? Not so much.

What’s the problem?

Put simply: government is too big, and incentives are all wrong.

According to the Kansas Policy Institute’s Green Book, Kansas spends more per resident than many of its peers, including Missouri and Texas. While other states are cutting taxes and flattening brackets, Kansas continues to tinker with ineffective tax triggers and hang onto legacy spending programs.

Worse, the state’s tax structure still punishes income rather than taxing consumption. That means Kansans are penalized for working, saving, and investing — all the things that actually grow an economy.

The result? Stagnant population, slow job growth, and missed opportunity. If Kansas were a business, the shareholders would be selling.

State competition is real

Interstate competition isn’t theoretical — it’s happening in real time. Governors know it. Businesses know it. And families are proving it.

States like Florida and Texas show what happens when you create a no-income-tax environment with smart budgeting. States like Tennessee and North Carolina are leaning in on flat taxes and growth-first policies. Even Arkansas is racing toward zero. These aren’t pipe dreams — they’re winning strategies.

Meanwhile, Kansas still struggles with the ghost of its past tax reform efforts, never fully pairing rate reductions with the kind of sustainable budgeting that makes them work. And instead of correcting course, many leaders are still defending the status quo.

The irony? Kansas has every reason to compete. It has a central location, low cost of living, strong infrastructure, and room to grow. But until lawmakers rein in spending and flatten the tax code, Kansas will keep losing its best and brightest to states that do it better.

The Trigger Law That Doesn’t Trigger

Kansas passed a law last session that would gradually cut income tax rates when revenues exceed inflation-adjusted thresholds. Sounds good on paper. But in practice? It’s not working.

As reported by the Sunflower State Journal, despite tax receipts beating projections by $248 million, they still fell short of the trigger to cut taxes. That means Kansans get to pay the same high rates while their government spends the excess.

Governor Laura Kelly vetoed broader cuts, citing fears of repeating the “Brownback era.” But here’s the thing: the lesson from that episode isn’t “don’t cut taxes” — it’s “don’t cut taxes without cutting spending.” That’s a far cry from a blank check for big government.

A better path forward

Kansas needs a real reset. That starts with spending less after excessive spending signed into law by Gov. Kelly. This should also include budget reform — not gimmicks, not clawbacks, not economic development slush funds — with a hard cap on government growth using KPI’s Responsible Kansas Budget, which limits spending increases to population growth plus inflation. That’s a sustainable path.

Then, Kansas should move to a consumption-based tax system — phasing out income taxes entirely over time. Let people choose when and how much they pay through final-sales taxes, and stop punishing work and investment.

Yes, competition will be fierce. But Kansas should welcome it. The state’s motto, “To the stars through difficulties,” was never meant to apply to red tape and high tax burdens.

Conclusion

Kansas isn’t doomed. But it is drifting. And if lawmakers don’t start competing, the trend lines won’t reverse. People move for opportunity. They stay where freedom, affordability, and prosperity are protected.

States that ignore that truth do so at their peril. Kansas just happens to be the canary in the coal mine.