L&T Publisher Earl Watt
While some are still trying to elect the president by popular vote, the Constitution provides the process for electing a president, and it runs through the Electoral College.
Each state is given Electoral votes by adding their total number of House and Senate members in Congress.
Kansas has six Electoral Votes while California has 54. While larger populated states have a numerical advantage, smaller populated states have a heavier weight per Electoral vote. In Kansas, we get one Electoral Vote for every 489,950 Kansans while California gets one for every 722,777 Californians.
This was a compromise made at the founding of the nation when creating the Constitution. At that time, larger populated states wanted a popular vote. Lesser populated states wanted one vote per state. The Constitution never would have passed without this key compromise as well as the compromise that led to the House of Representatives being represented by population and the Senate being represented by statehood.
Those two foundational compromises are why we are a republic and not a democracy.
There has been a movement to try and kill the Electoral College by getting enough states to join a compact that would negate their own state’s votes if the popular vote supported a different candidate. If Kansas joined the compact, for example, and the state overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump, but Joe Biden narrowly won the popular vote, then Kansas voters would be disenfranchised and their votes negated to support the national popular vote winner.
This would subvert the very structure of the Constitution, and the popular state compact knows it could never get an amendment passed to get rid of the Electoral College since so many small states would be negatively affected.
The Supreme Court would have to rule if such an effort ever achieves 270 Electoral votes, which is what it would take to allow the compact to undermine the Constitution.
And if it did, states not part of the compact would have a case of exiting the Union since the rules that allowed the union to be made would have been severely altered.
As it stands, we still use the Electoral College and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
We took an early look in February at where the race stood, and even though we are six months form election day, and we have yet to see how the recent court decision in New York has affected the electorate, it’s time to take another view now so we can see how the election looks prior to the response to Trump’s conviction on record-keeping charges.
Since our last peek at the crystal ball, there has been some changes in the toss-up categories.
According to Real Clear Politics, Democrat Joe Biden has a lock on 215 Electoral Votes, and Republican Donald Trump has a lock on 219. It takes 270 to win.
That leaves 104 rated as toss-ups, which is an increase of 11 toss-ups since February.
Those additional toss-ups include Congressional District 2 in Nebraska and Minnesota’s 10 Electoral Votes.
Having Minnesota moved to a toss-up is major since Minnesota has not voted for aa Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972.
While it may be a toss-up today, Biden has a2.3 point lead of the average of polls, so I’m still placing it in the Democratic category, giving Biden 225.
Looking across the West and South toss-up states, Trump is leading in Nevada by 5.4, Arizona by 4.0, North Carolina by 4.8 and Georgia by 4.8. Give those four states to Trump, and he is at 168.
That leaves three razor-thin states in the Great Lakes area — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Currently Trump leads in all three, but not by much. Trump leads Wisconsin by 0.1, Michigan by 0.5 and Pennsylvania by 2.3.
If Trump were to win any one of the three, he would be president. In my estimation, he wins Michigan but loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. IN that scenario, Trump gets 283 Electoral Votes and Biden gets 254.
But fore a moment, let’s assume Biden also wins Michigan. That leaves Trump at 268 and Biden at 269.
Why?
Because we forgot about the little toss-up district in Nebraska. If it supports Biden, he wins with 270-268. If Nebraska CD-2 goes Trump, it’s a 269-269 tie, and it goes to the House of Representatives.
The Founders also devised a great compromise here as well. Each state’s delegation has to come up with one vote, meaning the president has to win 26 states to become president. With 28 states going for Trump, he would become president.
Currently, Real Clear Politics has Trump winning 312 Electoral Votes since he is leading in virtually every swing state, but I would expect that come November. I have Trump winning with 284-254.
Still, there are a lot of variables between now and November. For one, we have to see how the debates go, and we also have to see what type of penalty the New York judge will hand down to Trump on July 11, and how that will affect Trump’s ability to campaign.
I believe there will be a two to three point decline for Trump over the next 30 days after the shock of the verdict, but that the polls will balance back to their current trajectories by July 4.
It’s hard to believe there will be a major swing since pre-polling showed few were basing their votes on the outcome of the New York trial.
But some will.
Can Trump rally his support back, or will momentum shift and never return?
Elections tend to swing back and forth, until they don’t. And right now it’s too early to tell.
