L&T Publisher Earl Watt
By the time all the votes are counted in the presidential election, which could come days or weeks after Election Day, it is quite possible Kamala Harris coasts to an easy win, or Donald Trump ends up winning in a blowout.
A more realistic outcome is a much closer race, and given the evenly split nation, that wouldn’t be surprising.
The polls are also tilting more to the latter, with Trump ahead in several polls and Harris ahead in others.
But the race won’t be won by the popular vote and never has been. The race is decided by the winner of the Electoral College. Each state is awarded an Electoral vote for each representative and senator.
For example, California receives 54 Electoral Votes while Kansas gets six. Ironically, those in favor of the popular vote believes Kansas has an advantage over California in this scenario, because each Electoral Vote from Kansas carries slightly more weight than California.
But California still has nine votes to every one for Kansas, so it’s hard to make the argument that statehood is important while erasing statehood with a popular vote president.
The genius of the Founding Fathers is evident in the Electoral College which balanced statehood and population.
Harris currently has a two-point lead nationwide, but Trump has a 0.1 point lead in the battleground states, and that’s why the election could go either way.
Chances are early indicators will tell the story nationwide.
Trump will need to win North Carolina and Georgia, and Harris will need to win Michigan and Wisconsin, and if Harris wins Georgia, it is highly likely she will cruise to a blowout win.
If Trump wins Michigan, chances are he runs away with a blowout victory.
Those races are still very close, but if the numbers in the polls are accurate, Harris should take Michigan, and Trump should win Georgia.
Democrats have pulled recent upsets in Georgia, and Trump’s commitment to the auto industry against foreign competition puts Michigan in play.
Those are just some of the dynamics that make this race one of the most compelling and yet unpredictable in modern history.
Using recent results as well as historic data, plus taking into account polling data that has been off in the past two presidential elections, we can apply curves to the numbers and get a much better look at where the numbers really are.
After giving states to each candidate that are no brainers, the race comes down to Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Should Trump do as expected in the South and West, he could reach 268 Electoral votes by winning Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
It takes 270 to win.
If Harris sweeps the Great Lakes, she can reach 270 by winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The biggest question is Pennsylvania which voted for Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. It could literally go either way.
The policies of the Biden Administration have been harder on Pennsylvanians than other parts of the country, and Biden only won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes even though he claims Scranton as his home town.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania it would be next to impossible for him to lose the race.
If Harris reaches 270 and Trump reaches 268, there is a single district that may come into question — Nebraska District 2.
Unlike 48 of the 50 states, Nebraska distributes its Electoral Votes by district.
This isn’t a bad system, but it is a bit unfair to the candidate who wins 75 percent of the state but gives up one Electoral vote.
Voting by district is fine if every state did it.
Harris will win California, for example, and get all 54 Electoral Votes. But if the state was decided by its 52 districts, Trump could easily win about 20 of those, possibly more.
So the winner-take all benefits Harris in California.
It benefits Trump in Texas.
But in a state like Nebraska, which leans heavily conservative as a state but has a pocket around the state’s largest populated city, the district system removes the advantage of the state to its majority.
If Harris swept the Great Lakes battleground states and Trump wins the South and West, Nebraska 2 would determine the presidency. If Nebraska 2 goes for Harris, she wins 270-268. If Nebraska 2 favors Trump, it is a 269-269 draw and goes to the House of Representatives. In this case, all representatives from each state will get one collective vote. So the 52 California representatives get one vote. The four representatives from Kansas also combine for one vote.
A tie would lead to a Trump victory because he would have support in 28 states compared to 22 for Harris.
Traditional pollsters are currently leaning Trump, including Rasmussen and Gallup, while other polling agencies are leaning Harris. That’s why this is currently an absolute toss up, but should the momentum start to shift one way or the other, it is still completely possible to end with either side claiming a mandate in the Electoral College.
As voting has begun in some states, the window for both candidates to sway undecided voters is getting smaller and smaller. Getting voters to show up is now the goal of both parties.
Early research is showing a close race in advance voting. That could be bad news for Democrats who normally dominate early, and Republicans tend to do better on Election Day.
Watch North Carolina and Pennsylvania as early indicators either way.
